FARNBOROUGH 2016: Need for 2,800 turboprops in ATR 20-year forecast

ATR has announced its latest market forecast for 40-80 seat turboprops, with 2,800 aircraft deliveries required between 2016 and 2035.

The current in-service fleet in this seat segment is 2,100 aircraft and ATR expects 1,100 of these to still be in service in 2035. One thousand aircraft will be replaced, leaving 1,800 of the aircraft to be delivered to provide growth in the market. The total fleet in 2035 is forecast to be 3,900 turboprops.

Zuzana Hrnkova (pictured), ATR’s vice-president of marketing, explained that the overall growth between 2016 and 2035 represents an 86% increase in the fleet. The split in the deliveries equates to 35% for replacement and 65% for growth.

In the 40-60 seat sector, the 20-year demand is 600 aircraft, compared with 2,200 in the 61-80 seat sector. “Some of these will replace aircraft in the 30-seat category which are due to come out of service. Some airlines will replace with aircraft in the lower seat category, but some will come up to the 40-60 seat category,” Hrnkova remarked.

Demand for the 3-class version of the ATR 72-600, which the OEM promoted during its #ATR4US American tour recently, is included in the 40-60 seat forecast. This contributes to the potential increase in sales in this seat segment compared with the percentage of sales currently being gained out of total sales by the ATR 42-600, which is approximately 10%.

Hrnkova noted there have been approximately 2,000 new turboprop routes in the past 10 years, while 460 new routes have been opened just with ATR aircraft since 2010. The VP predicts that there will be 3,000 new routes opened in the next 20 years which alone will require 900 turboprops.

The required 2,800 deliveries will translate into an annual production requirement of 140 aircraft a year for all manufacturers. ATR’s own production will reach more than 90 this year, after a record 88 aircraft delivered last year. The current maximum capability at the company’s Toulouse plant is approximately 120 aircraft a year.

Bernie Baldwin, editor, Low-Fare & Regional Airlines/laranews.net
Farnborough, UK

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