Posted on: 16 June 2010 by Mark Howells
Expecting a 4.9% average growth rate in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) between 2010-2029, Embraer has announced a forecast a requirement for 6,875 aircraft in the 60-120 seat during that period.
In its pre-Farnborough briefings, Luiz Sergio Chiessi, VP market intelligence–airline market, explained that the 30-60 seat segment would require 475 aircraft over the period, expected to be 50 in the first decade to 2019 and 425 between 2020 and 2029.
In the 61-90 seat market, 2,515 are forecast, split into 1,140 for 2010-2019 and 1,375 for 2020-2029. Finally, in the 91-120 segment, where the biggest selling E-Jet – the E-190 – sits, 3,885 are expected over the next 20 year, with the first decade requiring 1,705 and the second needing 2,180.
Chiessi noted that the rate of growth is shifting from US and Europe to the emerging markets of China and the Asia-Pacific. In many of the emerging economies, many of which are likely to liberalise their markets, evolution in regional aviation could mirror what happened when deregulation occurred in the now developed markets, he commented.
Embraer expects the average global GDP to be 3.1% during the forecast period.
Behind the forecast, Chiessi remarked that in the 30-69 seat segment, 50-seat RJs are likely to continue to be important to feed hubs, while the emerging markets will take a considerable number of secondhand aircraft. However, there is also likely to be a market for replacements between 2020-2029, “if we manufacturers can come up with something that has the right economics”.
In the 61-90 seaters, scope clause relaxation allowing 80 seats in US will be a market driver. There will also be an increase in demand for a mainline service level in the regional market, with passengers requiring the same level of comfort whether on mainline or regional, Chiessi explained.
Finally Chiessi sees a great many opportunities for right-sizing using E-Jets in the 91-120 seat segment, plus an acceleration of the replacement of old aircraft as key elements behind the forecast demand. “There will also be some relaxation of scope clauses in Europe,” he added.
Bernie Baldwin, editor, Low-Fare & Regional Airlines/LARAnews.net