Posted on: 19 June 2012 by Mark Howells
Bombardier Aerospace has released its annual 20-year market forecast, which calls for 12,800 new aircraft to be delivered by 2031.
Indicators are mixed, yet trending positively, the company states. New aircraft orders are supported by continued demand from developed markets and growth potential in emerging markets, which are forecasted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace. Operators industry-wide remain focused on fleet optimisation and aircraft efficiency as fuel prices and environmental concerns rise.
“We have built our leadership position in aviation by continuously pushing the boundaries of product development to better meet the needs of our customers, both those who operate our aircraft and those who use them as a mode of transportation," remarked Mairead Lavery, vice-president, strategy, business development and structured finance, Bombardier Aerospace.
Bombardier’s 20-year view of the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft market calls for 12,800 deliveries from 2012 to 2031, generating more than $630 billion in sales revenue. This represents a decrease of 300 units (–2.3%) compared with last year’s forecast, mainly due to a lower GDP forecast and a sharp increase in the forecasted oil price.
Bombardier’s forecast by segment sees the following delivery requirements: 20 to 59 seats – 300 aircraft; 60 to 99 seats – 5,600 aircraft; and 100 to 149 seats – 6,900 aircraft.
In the 60- to 99-seat commercial aircraft market, Bombardier expects that scope clauses in North American and European operations will continue to ease to meet growing demand in this market segment, valued at more than $180 billion over the 20-year forecast period.
In the 100- to 149-seat segment, a shift in focus towards aircraft that are optimised for their intended segments is expected to be a catalyst for demand as airlines move away from derivatives of larger aircraft that were originally designed for larger capacity. Deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in the 100- to 149-seat segment are forecast to be worth more than $449 billion.
The global demand for air travel and new aircraft continues to shift towards emerging markets, says Bombardier. However, as with the business aircraft industry, North America is expected to lead the way in aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, taking in an expected 4,730 new aircraft, followed by China, with 2,220 aircraft, and Europe, including Russia and the CIS, with 2,240 aircraft.
The Commercial Aircraft Forecast predicts that more than half of the current fleet will be replaced in the next 20 years – a slightly greater percentage than expected last year.