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Com Certeza!

Stephanie Taylor sees first-hand the indelible optimism surrounding Embraer and the rollout of its new E-Jet E2 series.

Embraer’s E190-E2 appears from the hangar in a haze of dry ice! (pictured above)

Even though the focus of the event was clearly the rollout of the E190-E2 in Brazil (see above), the media were also keen to use their time with John Slattery, chief commercial officer of Embraer Commercial Aviation, to find out how the overall status of the company’s commercial aircraft programmes.

Luckily, Slattery appeared to pre-empt this as, although he wasn’t scheduled to speak to journalists during the allotted media day, he dropped in to make a presentation on the company’s market outlook. His good will only stretched so far though, as he was understandably determined not to divulge the names of any carriers Embraer might be working with on the basis that the competition is so aggressive – an ‘oligopoly’, as he kept saying.

Instead, joking that all of Embraer’s sales reps were out of the field and at Sao Jose dos Campos to celebrate the rollout, Slattery jibed that it would be a good day for Airbus and Boeing to try and close any of their deals.

However, he did give an interesting insight into the key areas from where Embraer believes its orders are going to come. Between 2015 and 2034, Slattery projects the company will deliver 6,035 aircraft in the 70 to 130 seat segment. The geographical split can be seen in the slide below:

embraer-orders-slide

Slattery’s market outlook for Embraer Commercial Aviation predicts the OEM will deliver 6,035 aircraft with 70-130 seats between 2015 and 2034.

Of those 6,035, Slattery believes 2,385 units (the majority) will constitute direct replacements of existing aircraft, while a further 755 units will replace 50 seat aircraft. Similarly, he predicts 725 units will be delivered as a result of airlines ‘right-sizing’, a concept central to the E-Jet proposition from the start of the programme.

450 units, he estimated, would come as the result of the 100-seat aircraft penetrating the North American market (Paulo Cesar Silva, president and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, said during the official rollout press conference that he’s hopeful of scope clause amendments which will soon allow this).

Slattery’s hopes for China and Brazil are less significant considering he expects to deliver 400 units across both regions combined over the next two decades; he expects low-fare airlines in both Asia and Europe will account for a mere 250 units.

Finally, Slattery thinks the smallest portion of deliveries will come as a result of airlines replacing their turboprops with jets, making up the remaining 110 units of the 6,035.

Although he didn’t mention the region on his breakdown of deliveries, Slattery did say the E-Jet E2s would also be perfect for Africa, where airlines are currently operating equipment which is too large for longer, thinner routes. He believes Embraer aircraft can replace turboprops when it comes to distances over 250 nautical miles.

Despite the presence of facts and figures, Slattery was keen to emphasise that the rollout of the E190-E2 at Embraer’s factory in São José dos Campos as being an emotional event, as can clearly be grasped from the presence of thousands of Embraer employees at the rollout ceremony, pictured below:

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Embraer employees gather at São José dos Campos to witness the rollout of the E190-E2

I suppose it is hard not to have a positive outlook when you’re so proud of what you’ve achieved.

“Lindo maravilhoso”, as they say in Portuguese.

The Embraer E-Jets E2 family will be the subject of the airframe programme update feature in the April-May 2016 issue of Low-Fare & Regional Airlines.

Stephanie Taylor, assistant editor, Low-Fare & Regional Airlines / LARAnews.net

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